Why did revenue move this month?

Why it rose less than usual

Over the previous 12 months, recurring revenue rose an average €2,677 a month. In September, conversions and upgrades both fell short: 141 trials converted to paid, the fewest in 12 months, and moves up a plan added €5,720, against an average €5,942. New customers, returning customers and moves up a plan added €10,853 in all; the 153 customers who left took €6,797, and moves down a plan €1,720. Set new customers to the 12-month average of 157 below, with nothing else changed, and the month rises €2,800, above the average.

How each line is priced

Each line is customers times the change in their monthly price. Every new or returning customer joins Starter at €29; a Starter customer moving up to Growth adds €70, and a Growth customer who leaves takes €99. Under “What if”, a changed driver splits its customers across the plans in September’s own proportions: of the 153 who left, 125 were on Starter, 26 on Growth and 2 on Scale. Returning customers stay at September’s 36.

What this shows, and what it does not

The bridge is accounting. It shows which lines moved revenue and by how much, not why: it cannot say why 153 customers left or why fewer trials converted. That takes the customer-level history behind each line, the data a churn model reads.

Under “What if”, the drivers move one at a time. In a business they move together: a price rise lifts what each customer pays and costs some of the customers. And the bridge covers one month: a customer kept in September pays again in the months after, which a one-month bridge does not count. What a cut in churn is worth over two years is the lower-churn scenario in the revenue forecast demo.

The full analysis: a monthly revenue report for the same company, with customers by plan, a 6-month forecast and a decision memo drawn from it.