FinDaS AI

Forecast · Monte Carlo simulation

Where is revenue heading, and what would lower churn add?

A Monte Carlo simulation of your next two years of revenue from sign-ups and churn, with its 80% range, and what lower churn adds, which sets what retention can cost.

The answer

Revenue by September 2028 if nothing changes

September 2028, median

€358,200

Monthly recurring revenue, the median of 1,000 runs: up €15,700 on September 2026's €342,458.

September 2028, 80% range

€295,600 to €417,900

8 runs in 10 end inside this range; 1 ends below it and 1 above.

The forecast is driver-based: it is built month by month from the company’s rates for sign-ups, trials that pay, moves between plans, churn and customers coming back, not from a trend fitted to past revenue. Each of 1,000 runs is one possible two years; 8 runs in 10 end inside the 80% range.

What lower churn adds

Lower churn adds, two years

€224,100

Extra revenue over the 24 months to September 2028, with Starter churn at 4.0% a month instead of 5.0%; 80% range €180,500 to €264,800.

Break-even retention spend

€9,300 a month

€224,100 over 24 months: what a retention effort can cost a month and still pay for itself in revenue.

Monthly recurring revenue, September 2025 to September 2028

Actual, then the forecast as nowWith lower Starter churnLine: median run. Shade: 80% range.
Actual: one simulated run, in whole euros. Forecast: 1,000 runs of the model from the end of September 2026, each run as now and with lower churn from the same random draws, rounded to the nearest €100. Dashed line: September 2026.
The same data as a table
Monthly recurring revenue: actual, then the forecast as now and with lower Starter churn, the median and 80% range of the runs
MonthActualAs now, medianAs now, 80% rangeLower churn, medianLower churn, 80% rangeLower churn adds, median
September 2025€310,496
October 2025€312,582
November 2025€314,616
December 2025€318,019
January 2026€321,690
February 2026€325,394
March 2026€329,111
April 2026€333,157
May 2026€335,393
June 2026€336,102
July 2026€339,533
August 2026€340,122
September 2026€342,458
October 2026€343,100€339,100 to €346,500€343,900€339,900 to €347,300€800
November 2026€343,700€336,300 to €349,800€345,400€337,900 to €351,400€1,600
December 2026€344,700€333,900 to €353,300€347,000€336,200 to €355,800€2,400
January 2027€345,300€331,200 to €356,600€348,500€334,200 to €359,900€3,200
February 2027€346,200€328,900 to €360,000€350,100€332,500 to €364,200€3,900
March 2027€346,600€326,600 to €363,000€351,400€331,000 to €368,000€4,700
April 2027€347,600€324,200 to €366,000€353,100€329,200 to €371,800€5,500
May 2027€348,200€322,000 to €369,200€354,300€327,500 to €375,800€6,200
June 2027€348,900€320,100 to €372,300€355,800€326,400 to €380,200€7,000
July 2027€349,500€318,500 to €376,100€357,100€325,000 to €384,400€7,700
August 2027€350,300€316,300 to €378,800€358,600€323,200 to €388,100€8,400
September 2027€351,300€314,000 to €381,900€360,400€321,600 to €392,400€9,100
October 2027€352,000€312,200 to €385,400€361,900€320,100 to €396,400€9,800
November 2027€352,700€309,900 to €388,200€363,200€318,600 to €399,900€10,500
December 2027€353,300€308,800 to €391,400€364,800€317,600 to €404,700€11,200
January 2028€354,000€306,300 to €394,300€365,800€315,700 to €408,300€11,900
February 2028€354,600€304,800 to €396,800€366,800€314,600 to €411,600€12,600
March 2028€355,000€304,000 to €399,600€368,700€314,400 to €415,700€13,300
April 2028€355,500€301,900 to €403,400€369,600€312,800 to €419,600€14,100
May 2028€356,500€300,300 to €405,900€371,200€311,300 to €423,200€14,700
June 2028€356,700€299,100 to €409,500€372,000€311,400 to €427,500€15,400
July 2028€357,700€298,200 to €411,800€373,800€310,300 to €431,700€16,100
August 2028€357,800€296,400 to €414,600€374,700€309,700 to €435,400€16,900
September 2028€358,200€295,600 to €417,900€375,900€308,400 to €439,400€17,500

Change the inputs

Point at, focus or move an input and the customer-flow map lights the moves it changes; the map’s rates follow the sign-ups and the churn level. The scenarios, the run picked apart and the forecast table all re-run with it.

600 a month

Free trials started. 25% of trials convert to the Starter plan.

Starter 5.0%, Growth 2.5%, Scale 1.5% a month

The middle of the range: each run draws its own churn around it.

How steady churn has been
1.0 point: Starter churn 5.0% to 4.0% a month

Starter, the entry plan, loses the largest share of its customers each month.

Every state a customer can be in, and every monthly move

customers movingrevenuereadspooldecisionruledrain5%a move's rate: the share of the state it leaves, each month

Hover, tap or tab to a shape or a move for its card; click or press Enter to keep it open, Escape to close.

Signs upPays after the trial25%Trial ends unpaid75%Moves up2%Leaves5%Moves up1%Moves down1%Leaves2.5%Moves down1%Leaves1.5%Comes back2%12 months lapsed98%600Sign-upsa monthTrialPays?Did not convertStarter2,795Stay, moveor leave?Growth1,230Stay, moveor leave?Scale467Stay, moveor leave?€RevenueLapsedCome back?Gone%Win-back offerSigns up600 a monthPays after the trial25%Trial ends unpaid75%Moves up2%Leaves5%Moves up1%Moves down1%Leaves2.5%Moves down1%Leaves1.5%Comes back2%12 months lapsed98%600Sign-upsa monthTrialPays?Did not convertStarter2,795Stay, moveor leave?Growth1,230Stay, moveor leave?Scale467Stay, moveor leave?€RevenueLapsedCome back?Gone%Win-backoffer

Every figure on the map is an input of the forecast: the customers at the end of September, the prices and the monthly rates. The site does not build unless every arrow is a flow in the model, and the model moves customers along every arrow and no other.

The map as text

Inflow · every month

Sign-ups

Is
new people arriving from outside the company
Does
starts each of them on a one-month free trial
Varies
the expected number a month is the company's choice, 600 by default and 200 to 1,200 in the forecast; the month's actual count is drawn around itthe company's choicerandom every month

Pool

Trial

Is
people in their one-month free trial; they pay nothing
Then
at the month's end every trial meets “Pays?”
Never
holds anyone for longer than the month

Decision · every month

Pays?

Is
the end of each free trial
Does
sends 25% of trials to Starter; the rest end unpaid and go to Did not convert
Varies
the 25% is fixed; which people pay is drawn every monthfixedrandom every month

Drain

Did not convert

Is
trials that ended without paying
Never
sends anyone back: nobody leaves it

Plan · €29 a month

Starter

Is
paying customers on the entry plan, at €29 a month; 2,795 at the end of September
Does
takes every trial that pays and every lapsed customer who comes back
Then
each month its customers meet “Stay, move or leave?”

Decision · Starter, every month

Stay, move or leave?

Does
5% of Starter customers leave each month and 2% move up to Growth; the rest stay
Varies
the 5% is scaled once per run by the churn level and lowered by the churn cut; the 2% is fixeddrawn once per runfixed
Varies
which customers leave and which move is drawn every monthrandom every month

Plan · €99 a month

Growth

Is
paying customers on Growth, at €99 a month; 1,230 at the end of September
Does
takes Starter customers moving up and Scale customers moving down
Then
each month its customers meet “Stay, move or leave?”

Decision · Growth, every month

Stay, move or leave?

Does
2.5% of Growth customers leave each month, 1% move up to Scale and 1% move down to Starter; the rest stay
Varies
the 2.5% is scaled once per run by the churn level; the moves are fixeddrawn once per runfixed
Varies
which customers leave and which move is drawn every monthrandom every month

Plan · €299 a month

Scale

Is
paying customers on the largest plan, at €299 a month; 467 at the end of September
Does
takes Growth customers moving up
Then
each month its customers meet “Stay, move or leave?”

Decision · Scale, every month

Stay, move or leave?

Does
1.5% of Scale customers leave each month and 1% move down to Growth; the rest stay
Varies
the 1.5% is scaled once per run by the churn level; the 1% is fixeddrawn once per runfixed
Varies
which customers leave and which move is drawn every monthrandom every month

Rule · every month

Revenue

Is
the month's revenue: customers on each plan times the plan's price
Reads
Starter at €29, Growth at €99 and Scale at €299 a month, counted after the month's moves
Varies
the prices are fixedfixed
Never
counts trials or lapsed customers, who pay nothing

Pool

Lapsed

Is
former paying customers, kept by how many months they have been gone, 1 to 12
Does
takes everyone who leaves a plan; 1,646 at the end of September
Then
each month they meet “Come back?”

Decision · every month

Come back?

Does
brings 2% of lapsed customers back each month, to Starter whatever plan they left; anyone lapsed for 12 months without coming back goes to Gone; the rest stay lapsed
Reads
the Win-back offer, which sets the 2%
Varies
which lapsed customers come back is drawn every monthrandom every month

Drain

Gone

Is
former customers lapsed for 12 months without coming back
Never
sends anyone back: nobody leaves it

Rule · the company's choice

Win-back offer

Is
what the company offers lapsed customers to come back
Does
sets the share that come back: 2% of lapsed customers a month in the forecast
Varies
held fixed in the forecast, where it is not one of the inputsfixed

The moves

Move · every month

Signs up

Runs
Sign-ups to Trial
Rate
600 a month expected, the company's choice; each month's count is drawn around it
Took it
609 customers in September 2026

Move · every month

Pays after the trial

Runs
Trial to Starter, through “Pays?”
Rate
25% of trials, at the end of their free month
Took it
141 customers in September 2026

Move · every month

Trial ends unpaid

Runs
Trial to Did not convert, through “Pays?”
Rate
75% of trials, at the end of their free month
Took it
467 customers in September 2026

Move · every month

Moves up

Runs
Starter to Growth, through “Stay, move or leave?”
Rate
2% of Starter customers a month
Took it
56 customers in September 2026

Move · every month

Leaves

Runs
Starter to Lapsed, through “Stay, move or leave?”
Rate
5% of Starter customers a month, the central rate: each run draws its own churn level around it
Took it
125 customers in September 2026

Move · every month

Moves up

Runs
Growth to Scale, through “Stay, move or leave?”
Rate
1% of Growth customers a month
Took it
9 customers in September 2026

Move · every month

Moves down

Runs
Growth to Starter, through “Stay, move or leave?”
Rate
1% of Growth customers a month
Took it
16 customers in September 2026

Move · every month

Leaves

Runs
Growth to Lapsed, through “Stay, move or leave?”
Rate
2.5% of Growth customers a month, the central rate: each run draws its own churn level around it
Took it
26 customers in September 2026

Move · every month

Moves down

Runs
Scale to Growth, through “Stay, move or leave?”
Rate
1% of Scale customers a month
Took it
3 customers in September 2026

Move · every month

Leaves

Runs
Scale to Lapsed, through “Stay, move or leave?”
Rate
1.5% of Scale customers a month, the central rate: each run draws its own churn level around it
Took it
2 customers in September 2026

Move · every month

Comes back

Runs
Lapsed to Starter, through “Come back?”
Rate
2% of lapsed customers a month
Took it
36 customers in September 2026

Move · every month

12 months lapsed

Runs
Lapsed to Gone, through “Come back?”
Rate
98% of those lapsed 12 months: the ones who do not come back go
Took it
104 customers in September 2026
  • €29 each (revenue): Revenue reads Starter
  • €99 each (revenue): Revenue reads Growth
  • €299 each (revenue): Revenue reads Scale
  • 2% a month (read): Come back? reads Win-back offer

How it works

How a simulation works

  1. Step 1 of 5

    One customer, one month at a time

    Each month a customer meets the decision where they stand, and the model draws which way they go, at the map’s rates. This is one customer from the model’s own draws (run 5,924): they pay after their trial in October 2026, move up to Growth in March 2027, leave in October 2027 and come back in February 2028. In 20 months the draw said stay. Over the two years they paid €1,070.

    Where one customer is, month by month, September 2026 to September 2028

    1. October 2026 at “Pays?”

      Pays 25%: this month’s draw · Ends unpaid 75%

    2. March 2027 at “Stay, move or leave?”

      Leaves 5% · Moves up 2%: this month’s draw · Stays 93%

    3. October 2027 at “Stay, move or leave?”

      Leaves 2.5%: this month’s draw · Moves up 1% · Moves down 1% · Stays 95.5%

    4. February 2028 at “Come back?”

      Comes back 2%: this month’s draw · Stays lapsed 98%

    One closed run of the model from a single trial, at the forecast’s default inputs. The odds are the map’s central rates; the run draws its own churn level around them.

  2. Step 2 of 5

    One month of the whole company

    The model makes those draws for every customer at once: for each move, one draw gives how many of a state’s customers take it. October 2026 in run 11, the typical run: 612 people sign up; of the 609 trials, 143 pay and 466 end unpaid; 136 leave Starter, 40 Growth and 8 Scale; 75 move up, 16 move down and 27 come back. The thicker the line, the more customers took the move.

    Customers on each move in October 2026, one run

    Month 1 of run 11 from the end of September 2026; the pools show where the month ended.
    The month as a table
    Customers on each move in October 2026, run 11
    MoveFromToCustomers
    Signs upOutsideTrial612
    Pays after the trialTrialStarter143
    Trial ends unpaidTrialDid not convert466
    Moves upStarterGrowth62
    Moves upGrowthScale13
    Moves downGrowthStarter12
    Moves downScaleGrowth4
    LeavesStarterLapsed136
    LeavesGrowthLapsed40
    LeavesScaleLapsed8
    Comes backLapsedStarter27
    12 months lapsedLapsedGone119

  3. Step 3 of 5

    One run: two years of months

    24 months in a row make one run: one possible path for revenue, each month’s customers times their plan’s price. The typical run, the one that ends closest to the median, reaches €358,200 in September 2028.

    Monthly recurring revenue in one run, September 2026 to September 2028

    Run 11 of 1,000, from the end of September 2026, rounded to the nearest €100 in the text.

  4. Step 4 of 5

    A thousand runs

    Run the same two years 1,000 times, each run with its own draws and its own churn level, and the paths fan out. 40 are drawn here, ending between €209,300 and €454,300. Of all 1,000, 800 end inside the shaded 80% range, €295,600 to €417,900, around the median line.

    Monthly recurring revenue in 40 runs, with the 80% range of all 1,000

    One run each grey line; shade: 80% range; dark line: medianThe typical run

  5. Step 5 of 5

    The answer: where the runs end

    Count where every run ends in September 2028 and the forecast is the shape of the pile: its middle, the median €358,200 (the red line), and its width, 8 runs in 10 between €295,600 and €417,900 (the dashed lines). The forecast’s two tiles print these three numbers.

    Runs by monthly recurring revenue in September 2028

    Each column counts the runs ending in its band of revenue; paler columns lie outside the 80% range.

How steady churn has been. Across thousands of customers, chance mostly averages out. The bigger unknown is the churn rate itself, so each run draws its own churn level once and keeps it for both years. With churn up and down, the default, the September 2028 range is €295,600 to €417,900; with churn steady, €334,200 to €384,200.

Scenarios

Three ways to add revenue, side by side

The same luck in every case. Each scenario runs the company again from the same random draws as the forecast, so the gap within a run is the scenario’s alone. That is why the forecast’s two shades overlap on its chart while, at the settings the page opens with, lower churn adds revenue in 1,000 of 1,000 runs.

At those settings, one point off Starter churn adds €224,100 over two years and 80 more trials a month add €158,600. Together they add €391,600, €9,000 more than the two apart: the extra trials put more customers on Starter for the lower churn to keep.

Lower Starter churn

Starter churn 5% to 4% a month, the cut set in the forecast's inputs.

Adds over two years, median

€224,100

80% range €180,500 to €264,800; above €0 in 1,000 of 1,000 runs.

Break-even spend

€9,300 a month

€224,100 over 24 months: what a retention effort can cost a month and still pay for itself in revenue.

Runs by two-year gain

More trials

80 more trials a month, 600 to 680.

Adds over two years, median

€158,600

80% range €142,000 to €174,200; above €0 in 1,000 of 1,000 runs.

Break-even spend

€6,600 a month

€158,600 over 24 months: what the extra trials can cost, €83 a trial, and still pay for itself in revenue.

Runs by two-year gain

Both together

The lower churn and the extra trials at once.

Adds over two years, median

€391,600

80% range €330,700 to €446,800; above €0 in 1,000 of 1,000 runs.

Break-even spend

€16,300 a month

€391,600 over 24 months: what the two efforts together can cost a month and still pay for itself in revenue.

Runs by two-year gain

Each column counts the paired runs whose two-year gain falls in its band, on one scale for all three; the red line is the median, the dashed lines the 80% range, and paler columns lie outside it.

The scenarios as a table
Two-year gain over the forecast as now, by scenario: the median and 80% range of the paired runs, the runs it is above €0 in, and the break-even spend a month
ScenarioWhat changesMedian gain80% rangeRuns above €0Break-even
Lower Starter churnStarter churn 5% to 4% a month, the cut set in the forecast's inputs.€224,100€180,500 to €264,8001,000 of 1,000€9,300 a month
More trials80 more trials a month, 600 to 680.€158,600€142,000 to €174,2001,000 of 1,000€6,600 a month
Both togetherThe lower churn and the extra trials at once.€391,600€330,700 to €446,8001,000 of 1,000€16,300 a month

Drill-down

Inside one run

A forecast’s range is made of runs like these. At the settings the page opens with, the bad run won more customers than the typical one, 3,713 against 3,565 paying after their trial, and lost far more, 5,543 against 4,211: what sinks a run here is the churn it drew.

Pick a run

September 2028, this run

€358,200

Monthly recurring revenue, level with the median run's €358,200.

Paid after their trial

3,565

New paying customers over the 24 months; 883 more came back from lapsed.

Left a plan

4,211

Customers who left a plan over the 24 months; 3,059 former customers reached 12 months lapsed and are gone.

Paying customers, September 2028

4,729

From 4,492 at the end of September 2026.

Monthly recurring revenue, this run against all 1,000

This runMedian run; shade: 80% range

Customers won and lost each month, this run

Won: paid after the trial, or came backLeft a plan
The run month by month, as a table
One run, October 2026 to September 2028: each month's moves, paying customers at its end and monthly recurring revenue, against the median run
MonthSign-upsPaid after trialCame backMoved upMoved downLeftPayingRevenueMedian run
October 20266121432775161844,478€342,400€343,100
November 20266221393963181724,484€341,000€343,700
December 20266041724075151874,509€344,700€344,700
January 20275511633477161904,516€345,700€345,300
February 20275881413482191514,540€347,600€346,200
March 20276011333571221714,537€347,600€346,600
April 20276381553649211504,578€347,100€347,600
May 20275791793059101764,611€347,600€348,200
June 20275971483872111584,639€349,900€348,900
July 20275981594172131744,665€351,700€349,500
August 20276261523373121684,682€354,000€350,300
September 20276051523677171774,693€355,500€351,300
October 20275431474070271764,704€357,000€352,000
November 20275611234264201884,681€355,200€352,700
December 20275971244070161784,667€355,100€353,300
January 20285591634182241724,699€354,200€354,000
February 20286151323980121544,716€357,300€354,600
March 20285831603772171844,729€358,500€355,000
April 20285881372755171964,697€356,500€355,500
May 20285871543852181634,726€357,000€356,500
June 20286161494672181914,730€357,200€356,700
July 20285441622980181804,741€359,000€357,700
August 20286081343264221894,718€357,100€357,800
September 20286091444983201824,729€358,200€358,200

Sensitivity

What moves the answer most

Churn moves September 2028 most: €492,000 with every plan’s churn at its lowest setting (Starter 2% a month), €265,700 at its highest (8%). Trial sign-ups come next, then chance, the runs’ own spread. How steady churn has been barely moves the median: it widens or narrows the range around it.

September 2028 revenue, the median of the runs, at each input’s range ends

The input at the low end of its rangeAt the high endChance alone: 8 runs in 10
Each input moved alone, from the end of September 2026, with the same €358,200 median at the defaults as the forecast; the churn ends are the churn level’s, with Starter’s monthly rate named.

What this shows, and what it does not

What it does not. The model knows the company’s rates, not what will change them. It holds the rates you set for two years, with no seasonality, no price change and no annual plans, so its range covers chance and the churn rate and nothing else: a competitor’s price cut or a failed launch falls outside it. The scenarios price lower churn and more trials, not the effort that gets them, and their break-even is on revenue, before the cost of serving the customers kept or won.

On your own data. The model is fitted to your billing history: your plans, your customers and the churn you have recorded. Each month the forecast is set against what happened, part by part, and the inputs are updated; the method is on revenue forecasting. Anything you act on, such as funding a retention programme, carries the analytics director’s sign-off.

The full analysis: the monthly revenue report this forecast comes from, with September’s figures, its revenue bridge and a decision memo on the same lower-churn question. At the settings this page opens with, the report’s six-month forecast is this page’s first six months, and its memo’s two-year gain is this page’s.

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